This is interesting:
Over 200,000 people are born everyday, but the number of active Jehovah's Witnesses increases by only 224. Each day that Armageddon delays requires Jehovah to destroy an extra 200,000 people.
In the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 there were 2,968,732 baptisms, yet the increase in average publishers was only 1,439,672. This shows 1,529,060 stopped publishing. Even accounting for the average death rate, over 1 million Witnesses left in a 10 year period.
In the 5 years prior to 1975 the number of publishers was increasing at an average of 15% per year. During the 1980s and early 1990s growth continued at over 5% per year. This has fallen to between 1 - 3%, hardly more than the world's population growth of 1.2%. A large number of new publishers are teenagers that were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses. This indicates that almost 2 billion hours of preaching a year only brings enough new people to the Watchtower Society to replace the children that leave.
The rate of growth of publishers has dropped from an average 5.64% per annum over the 15 years prior to 1995, to 2.55% in the 15 years after 1995. Had growth remained above 5%, the 4,950,344 Witnesses in 1995 would have exceeded 11 million in 2010. Instead, there were only 7 million in 2010 - a difference of 4 million people. Factors on conversion and retention, such as Internet education, resulted in growth of 2 million instead of 6 million, just one third of that expected in 1995.
The number of baptisms reached a high of over 375,000 in 1997. Since then there has been a rapid fall of 30% to an average of 250,000 per year. When comparing baptisms to the increase in average publishers there is one to two hundred thousand people unaccounted for each year.
Baptisms have halved as a percentage over the last decade. Strikingly, as shown later, since 1997 the rate of baptisms has been around double the publisher growth rate, meaning that for every two people baptised almost one is leaving.
In 1969 there was one baptism for every 1,983 hours of preaching. During the 1980s it had risen to 3,000 hours. From 1990 to 2005 the number of hours preaching required per baptism increased from 3000 to 5000, an increase of 60%.
More significant is the number of hours required for an additional publisher. Due to the large increase in Witnesses leaving the religion, the number of hours preaching required per additional publisher has doubled from 4,000 in the early 1990's to over 8,000 since 2000. The difference from 1991 and 2005 from 4,000 to 16,000 is 400%.
After factoring in those that have died, the number that stop publishing each year trends around 80,000. This is an aggregate number as the number that stop each year is higher than this, but is compensated for by those that start preaching again after a period of inactivity.
The increase in publishers is only about half the number baptised. For this reason, Jehovah's Witnesses have the highest turnover of any mainstream religion.
"Jehovah's Witnesses are most "mobile." Accounting for less than 1 percent of American adults, one-third of their members leave the group, and two-fifths join from another religion."
The number of people leaving has tripled from the rate in the early 1990's. For the 10 years from 1986 to 1995 the rate was an average of 12%; for the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 it had risen to 41%.
The number that have stopped publishing includes some that are disfellowshipped and a portion that died. The third category are those that voluntarily stop preaching. This is made up of people that no longer believe it is the truth and fade from meetings without getting disfellowshipped, and others that still believe but become inactive in the preaching work. This category has also seen significant increase since 1995. However, this is also the most volatile group. Many inactive ones are uncertain of their beliefs, and reactivate in times of crisis, out of fear of the imminence of Armageddon.
The negative numbers in some years indicate that a net rejuvenation of publishers, as some that stopped publishing in previous years start to report again. These periods of reactivation are seen to follow times of crisis, such as the terrorist attacks in 2001, or the earthquakes and Global Financial Crisis starting 2009. Once the crises fades from memory, these weak individuals soon fade again from the ministry.
1997 was the peak of a long period of year on year growth in baptisms. The following graph shows that not only did the number of baptisms start to drop at that time, but also the number of people that stop preaching. Up until 1995, the number that stopped publishing (the purple section) was a small fraction in comparison to the increase in publishers (yellow column). Since then, the number of people leaving has grown to the point where on occasion it exceeded the increase in average publishers, such as in 1999.